The Israeli/Palestinian Conflict

Breaking News (1/3/09)
Israeli tanks and troops launch an attack on Gaza.
Israel: 'lengthy operation'
Hamas: 'Gaza will be a cemetery for Israeli soilders'
EU president: Israel ground op in Gaza 'defensive not offensive'
Obama: (nothing yet)

Quick take: Israel wants to find the rockets Hamas is shooting at their civilians.
Outlook: Israel will find them but it will take months

Update

Israel recently rejected a 48-hour proposal from international negotiators while commenting that it was open to ways of increasing humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians. Clearly, as in any war where one side has superior resources and fire power, the more powerful side will not give the weaker opponent a chance to regroup. Going forward, the big question will be whether Israel elects to launch a ground invasion.

World Response

Response from Europe has generally been hostile towards Israel and riots with signs labeling Israel a terrorist state are commonly seen. This emotional response reflects a high level of anti-Semitism across Europe given that there is no evidence that Israel is or has ever targeting civilians in their military attacks. And, in addition to launching rockets and suicide bombers at Israeli civilians, Hamas deliberately places women and children in military targets in an effort to sway international opinion against Israel.Iran, like much of the Middle East, has condemned Israel and continues to deny their right to exist. Iran's view is of Israel is extremely important considering they may have nuclear weapons in the near future.

Obama's First Move

Barack Obama takes office January 20th and clearly has a difficult situation to deal with. The first option traditionally has been to bring both parties to the table and try to negotiate a peace treaty. But, this has not worked and will not work because Israel and Palestine have irreconcilable differences. Without the ability to negotiate, Obama has a limited number of options. First, Obama will publicly reiterate the United States support of Israel. Second, he will privately encourage Israel to scale back the air strikes and ask them not to launch a ground assault. In exchange for this concession from Israel, Obama will likely reassure them that the US will help and/or fully support strikes on Iran in the event they acquire nuclear weapon capabilities. Obviously, the United States would help Israel even without the agreement, but Obama has a considerable amount of goodwill and Israel may take the chance to affirm their alliance.

Outlook

Because Hamas either has no desire to or cannot suppress terrorist elements within its society, they have little home of being part of an peace treaty in the near future because treaties depend on the belief that both sides will hold to their side of the bargain. And, Israel has and will continue to have the support of the United States, allowing it to launch fierce counter-strikes on Palestine. This conflict represents a chronic problem that can only be treated and not cured. We should pray that Obama can help lessen the currently painful symptoms in the Middle East.